Monday, February 13, 2006

how i'm sure enough about this to make a solid prediction

one thing that i've noticed about college basketball: there's a ton of parity. with the reduction of scholarships coupled with the increase of good ballplayers and the exodus of star underclassmen to the nba, it's easier for a mid-major team to keep up with the big boys. and most of the big upsets during march madness happen when a senior-laden lower seed takes down a favorite led by a big scorer or scorers.

what makes that happen is that usually the mid-major does something very well, and on that night, they do it great. and the favorite does not.

it's only one game. anything can happen.

that being said, i find it hard to believe that either uconn or villanova will be upset this year.

you see, uconn is huge. and no matter how good a mid-major might be, they're gonna have trouble keeping athletic big men off the boards. and even if one of the bigs gets in foul trouble, they've got subs coming in that are just as good. there's very little drop off. it's gonna be a big problem to deal with; mid-majors aren't blessed with size.

and because mid-majors aren't blessed with size, they're gonna have a ton of trouble against villanova. no matter who they put out there, they're gonna be nowhere near as good as allen ray, randy foye, kyle lowry or mike nardi. in fact, they'll be outquicked and outshot and outdefended. that scrappiness that mid-majors rely upon will be negated. those guys are too good, and even if one or two have an off-day, the other will pick it up.

and that's it. i can see j.j. redick having an off-day and duke losing. i can see the freshman on memphis getting caught up in the moment. i can see adam morrison having an off-day and nobody else on gonzaga picking him up.

but uconn and 'nova? no way.

1 comment:

RBrown said...

Duke will lose, and not just because I hate them but because EVERYONE hates them unless you went there. Karma. I'm just sayin'.

But whatever. My school won't even get invited this year. good thing i'm not bitter about that.