how to make oscar predictions

here's my take on the oscars, the one night where hollywood takse their already skyrocketed pretentiousness to new levels. and i think jon stewart's gonna take advantage of that. he's got the best comedy writers in the business and, god knows, hollywood leaves itself wide open for mockery. i mean, he's not gonna be as scathing as chris rock, but he won't be as pussywhipped as billy crystal either.

maybe he'll go old school and say, "keanu, calista. calista, keanu".

okay, now for the statues.

"brokeback mountain" will be named best picture. i thought it was "good night and good luck", but all five were good choices. there's no losers here. no losers.

ang lee will be named best director, and there's no doubt about that in my mind. watch that movie for a lesson in simplicity and saying everything by saying nothing and, most importantly, the power and frailties of restraint. ang lee captured all of that with beauty to spare.

reese witherspoon was a better june carter than june carter. she should and will win best actress, and that's long overdue. she's the best actress we've got. she'll cry.

speaking of long overdue, philip seymour hoffman's gonna win for "capote", and it's great that one of my favorite actors is gonna get some hardware to prove it. he completely creeped me out - even more so than heath ledger and jake gyllenhall. hoffman is that good. and he'll ramble on during his speech about how actors should support each other and blah blah blah. i pray he does it in the capote voice just to give everyone the creeps.

i didn't see most of the best supporting actors and actresses, so i'm gonna leave those blank. i heard rachel weisz and george clooney. i thought matt dillon was great in "crash". terrence howard was great in "crash", but he wasn't nominated.

ans that brings me to what i will wish for and pray for - i'm really feeling that "it's hard out there for a pimp " from "hustle and flow" wins for best song. i posted about how much i dug that movie, and i gotta say that i've had that song in my head for the past couple of weeks now. terrence howard completely nailed it, and the whole song is absolutely infectious. go ahead. watch the movie and try getting it out of your head. go ahead. dare ya.

other predictions: lindsay lohan will be out of her mind and out of her clothes by midnight. paris hilton will make a complete ass of herself between her second and third parties. and hilary swank will forget the name of her ex-husband again.

bank it.